Because this crisis is not associat with the economic cycle. There are crises usp: how to create a unique selling proposition to succe in 2025 associat, Among other things, with crit and financial cycles. We now see how debts have accumulat in many countries. And many fear that there are already bubbles. And the cost of financial assets does not reflect the cost of risks. We see that in the conditions of a soft monetary policy. Such negative consequences exist. And therefore, we consider it appropriate to show. How a cyclical global crisis can unfold and what the Central Bank’s reaction to it will be. I would like to emphasize once again that the scenario indicates 2023, but it is absolutely conditional and is ne to show, over a three-year forecast period, what the consequences may be if this scenario is realiz. Let me emphasize that we assess its probability as very low.
The way, as you may have notic, we have generally
mov to slightly different approaches to scenarios. Because before there were good, bad and average scenarios, and usually the bad scenario is a low oil price, and the good scenario is a high one. Although in the long set the interval of contact attempts term it is not a fact that a high price is the most optimal scenario.
Of course, we cannot prict how the situation
will develop. There may be many subtypes of scenarios agb directory depending on various factors. But our models, as it seems to us, allow us to show how monetary policy will behave if different types of risks are realiz, and to provide some prictability to market participants. Therefore, this should in no way be consider as some kind of crisis priction.